Everyone has an opinion on the housing market! But if you own a home in Dix Hills & Melville, in SD#5, you probably are more concerned about what is happening in your neighborhood. I narrowed the MLS data to show exactly what the stats are for this particular market area. Since that’s where I live too, I have a personal interest in sorting out these facts, but I plan to target other areas in the future.  To view the charts in a .pdf format for better clarity click on "View the Charts" at the end of the article.

 The first chart show the sales data for the first three quarters of 2008. The increase in the 3^rd quarter sales numbers and the level median sales prices for all 3 quarters is encouraging. But look at the levels of the Original Listing Prices and the Listing Prices at the time of entering into contract and at the Closed Selling Prices. 

 

Chart 2 graphs the 2008 3^rd Quarter Under Contract Stats – in comparison to 2007.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In the 3^rd Quarter, 2008, 71 homes in Dix Hills/Melville, SD#5 went Under Contract. Of those 71 homes, 37 Closed within the same time period. The Median Selling Price of those 37 Homes is $720,000. Again a decline from the Median Selling Price of $732,500 for all homes Closed during the 3^rd Quarter – irrespective of when they entered into contract. Two positive factors are the number of homes entering into contract – 71 in 2008 vs. 53 in 2007 and the Days on the Market (DOM) are about the same this year as last.

 Chart 3 graphs the 2008 3^rd Quarter Closed (Sold) Stats – in comparison to 2007

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This chart indicates that the number of all homes which Closed in the 3^rd Q, 2008 is about the same as last year and that the DOM in 2008 is less than last year. The Median Listing Prices and Sold Prices are substantially less in 2008 than in 2007.

Chart 4 shows exactly what is happening in the market. Look at the spread between the Original Listing Prices of the Available Listings and the Closed Selling Prices! There is almost a $129,000 difference between the median Original Listing Price and the median Selling Price!  Only when the listing price of the house is brought down to the Under Contract Price (which is the listing price of a home at the time it goes Under Contract) does it sell.   Even then, the selling price is markedly lower.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices have declined about 10% from a year ago, but 3^rd Quarter, 2008 sales numbers are about the same as this time last year.   On September 30, There were 238 Available Listings in Dix Hills and Melville, SD#5. Even though there are indications that the bottom of the market is in sight – and selling prices seem to have leveled off some - most economists don’t expect a rebound for at least a year – maybe longer. And - prices may continue to soften some. But with the lower mortgage rates, astute buyers know that now is probably the best time to buy.

My advice to sellers is to study the Comparable Listings of homes that recently went into contract. Look at the Selling Prices of the most recent Closed Comparables and price your house accordingly. The Available Listing Prices should be given the least consideration. What’s the purpose of grouping your house with those that aren’t going to sell? When a house is priced to reflect the current market and in line with current selling prices – it will sell.  

Note: All the prices in the charts above are all Median Prices (half of the houses are above the price, and half are below) and the data is from the LI Multiple Listing Service.  View the Charts.

Every day the financial reports seem to be worse than the day before. At times it appears as if there is no good news to be found about our economy, housing and financial institutions. However, the housing market has some encouraging reports.  Yes. Prices have dropped – but the charts below show the steady growth of housing appreciation and the  value of real estate over the long term. 

 Chart 1:  Return on Investment, by Steve Harney, Keeping Current Matters. 

Are we at the bottom yet? Frank Blake, CEO, Home Depot states in the Wall Street Journal, 9/3/08, “We don’t think we’re at the bottom yet, but we think you can see it from here.”  In the WSJ on 8/12/08, economist Karl Case of Wellesley (the ‘Case’ in the widely followed S&P/Case-Shiller index of U.S. housing prices) says that he thinks the housing market may be near a bottom.   Positive news from reputable sources!

And what about mortgage rates…   According to Bankrate.com, a national survey of large lenders indicates that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.19 percent this week.  “While mortgage rates continue to fluctuate, they remain well off their midsummer highs and are considerably lower than they were one year ago."  Freddie Mac reported that 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 5.94% last week!  With the lower mortgage rates and the price reductions in the housing market this is an optimum time to buy a house.  It’s true that banks are more stringent on their requirements, including larger down-payments, documented assets and good credit scores. But FHA loans are available for buyers that can’t meet those bench-marks – but are still credit-worthy and meet their guidelines. Read “What can I afford?”  to find mortgage contact information.