Where is the housing market headed?  Have we reached the bottom yet?  Is the housing bust over?  Three reports will be released this week that may indicate which direction the housing market is headed.   A newspaper article says that data from these reports will be focused on two parts of the housing market:  Home Sales and Home Prices.  And they don’t necessarily move in tandem.  One may recover before the other one does.

February showed an increase in numbers of home sales – for both new construction and resales – and that trend is likely to continue.  Foreclosures, record-low mortgage rates and the $8000 Tax Credit for 1^st-time homebuyers have all contributed to an increase in the numbers of homes sold. The busier spring housing market will help that momentum also.  Less likely to show an uptick are home prices.  A report due out tomorrow will address that.  Foreclosures may help home sales activity but they have a negative effect on home prices.  If home prices have “bottomed-out” and a recovery is taking place – we may not know that for awhile.  It takes time to go from looking for a home, signing a contract and then closing on that home.  The article, Housing Data Could Signal If Bust Is Over  was published April 20 in The Washington Post.

Although I’m disappointed that the $15,000 tax credit for all homebuyers didn’t make it to the final Stimulus Bill, there are some incentives and an $8000 Tax-Credit for 1^st-time homebuyers,   And when homeowners are able to sell their homes to 1^st-time homebuyers then they in turn will be able to “move-up” or “down-size” – thus creating ripples across the entire housing market.  Along with some additional programs for 1^st-time homebuyers available from NYS, these incentives should stimulate more activity in the housing market

Details about the Homeowner and Stability Plan announced today should be enumerated within the next few days.  CNN Money has some eligibility examples on their web site that are helpful.  Even if not directly affected, most homeowners will see a benefit to helping reduce the numbers of foreclosures.  Keeping the numbers of houses for sale to a sustainable amount will bring some needed stability to the housing market.  On Long Island, we have seen an increase in the numbers of sales since December.   That is very positive news for our housing market and as long as inventory levels do not increase substantially, the upward trend in sales numbers should continue.  The good news is very timely, now that we are about to start the Spring Market – our busiest time.

There has been some downward pressure on the higher-end market with an increase in inventory in that price range.  In Dix Hills, Melville, SD#5, there currently are 53 homes listed above $1,000,000.  Since November 1, 2008, five homes in that price range were placed Under Contract.  Compare that to 157 homes under $1,000,000 currently Available with 37 homes placed Under Contract since November 1, 2008.  Conditions for this price range also should improve in time – even if not directly affected by the announced housing programs.

After all the dreary news about the housing market in the local newspapers recently, today’s attendance at an open house held in Dix Hills today was a nice surprise!  Expecting the usual 4 to 6 couples I was very pleased when 12 couples showed up!  The best indication of a possible "uptick" in the local market is that all of the attendees are "new to the market".  The fall market is a great time to look at homes for sale.  The weather is beautiful – the properties look great – and the homeowners who put their homes on the market usually are serious sellers – not just testing the market. Want to learn more about buying a home in Dix Hills?  Call Cheryl at 631-549-1993!